No.21 Announcement of Damage Estimates for the Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake

(Inagi Newsletter July 15, 2013 issue)

On May 28, 2013, the working group of the Central Disaster Prevention Council of the Cabinet Office published its final report on measures against a Nankai Trough mega earthquake with a magnitude of 9.
The estimated national level damage includes 323,000 dead or missing, 9.5 million evacuees at peak times, 2,386,000 completely destroyed or burned buildings (about 20 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake), and a total damage amount, including secondary damage, of 220 trillion 300 billion yen (about 13 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake), which are staggering figures.
This report assumes that the damage will be widespread and immense, that there are limits to administrative support, and that predicting the earthquake is difficult, and it presents challenges and specific measures.
The main points are as follows,

1. Evacuation centers incorporate the concept of triage, prioritizing the acceptance of Older Adults and others.
2. Because the damage extends over a wide area, municipalities with less damage are requested to support other disaster-stricken areas.
3. It is necessary to enhance countermeasure methods through training and other means,
4. To reduce damage, it is important to have disaster prevention measures such as tsunami countermeasures and building seismic reinforcement.
5. Each person should have a food supply stockpile of at least one week.

The content calls for strengthening self-help systems, among other things.
As part of the city's response this fiscal year, regarding item 3, we have equipped all fire brigade divisions with portable concrete breaking tools.
In the regular education training conducted in June 2013, we implemented more practical training for rescuing lives from fallen trees and accident vehicles, alongside the engine cutters and chainsaws that have been deployed so far.
Regarding item 4, we are expanding seismic diagnosis for wooden houses and promoting the seismic reinforcement of buildings.
As for item 5, we ask the citizens themselves to take action. For a week's worth of supplies required at home, this includes 21 liters of drinking water (3 liters per adult per day), 14 canisters for a portable gas stove, emergency food such as canned goods and crackers, a battery-operated charger for mobile phones, batteries, and a radio.
Additionally, Tokyo announced similar damage estimates ahead of the national government on May 14, 2013. The maximum seismic intensity, liquefaction risk, and tsunami height in the 23 wards and Tama City are lower compared to the damage estimates for the capital's direct earthquake announced on April 18 last year, indicating that promoting the measures taken so far will also prepare us for the Nankai Trough mega earthquake.
The city will continue to work on disaster prevention measures, so we ask everyone to also advance preparations that can be made at home.